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Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fuelling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners’ appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
Despite worldwide vaccination, the pandemic remains with lockdown restrictions being imposed around the world. In addition, there is no clear view on which type of fuel will be the next generation one, yet with LNG retrofits gaining a bigger market share week by week. However, today the shipbuilding tanker market activity witness a completely different outlook, with the volume of newbuilding contracts emerging w-o-w being significantly strong and the NB values at levels that we last observed back in 2015. With respect to the latter fact, we could agree that the recent spike in steel prices has supported a large part of newbuilding value increases; nevertheless, with the cost for new investments burdening the owner’s capital, it is evident that the appetite for new vessels is strong.
According to our preliminary data, YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 71% of the total orders (27 of the total tanker contracting activity of 38 units). If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
As far as the asset values are concerned, average prices for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units to be constructed at top tier yards are estimated at $95.0M, $63.M, and $50.5 million respectively. A picture is worth a thousand words and that can be evident if we take a closer look at page 6 Indicative Newbuilding Prices table where a comparison with average values of the past 3 years can easily be made. Average prices of all sectors are hovering well below today’s values. Again, for the sake of clarity, 2021 average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax newbuilding prices stand at $90.0M, $59.5M, and $49.0 million. It remains to be seen, whether Chinese authorities will manage to curb iron ore prices and subsequently steel values. Such a depreciation on the respective commodities will be reflected on newbuilding values as well; however, if China’s exertion in containing steel prices remains unsuccessful newbuilding prices will appreciate further according to the underlying steel inflationary trend.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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