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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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