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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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