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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
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Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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