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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingFitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
 
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
 
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
 
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
 
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
 
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.


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