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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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