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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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