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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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