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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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