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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
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Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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