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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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