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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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