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Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
 Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle rather than dramatic
Coal carriers can look forward to a 26m-tonne increase in movements of the black rock by sea this year, although that increase springs off the lower baseline of pandemic-struck 2020.
Statistics from global energy analyst IEA put 2020 trade volumes at a 10% retraction, equivalent to around 150m tonnes - the largest drop ever - with seaborne coal trade hardest hit. In that context, the additional 26m tonnes predicted for 2021 is worthy of little celebration.
“The Covid-19 crisis has completely reshaped global coal markets. Before the pandemic, we expected a small rebound in coal demand in 2020, but we have since witnessed the largest drop in coal consumption since the Second World War,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. “The decline would have been even steeper without the strong economic rebound in China – the world’s largest coal consumer – in the second half of the year.”
All this comes on the top of a bumper year for global coal trade in 2019, when it reached its highest ever volume at 1,445m tonnes, a 0.8% increase from the previous year, with the vast majority of coal traded in 2019 - 92% and 1,331m tonnes - moved by sea. Countering this, exports in 2021 are expected to reach 1,323m tonnes this year. “This means that export volumes will remain well below the pre-Covid volumes,” said the IEA.
“Short-lived” rebound
In terms of demand, a rebound is expected this year, and while it is forecast to be “short-lived” there is “little sign that the world’s coal consumption is set to decline substantially in the coming years”, said the IEA. If the world economy recovers, global coal demand is expected to rise 2.6% in 2021. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, but there could be surprise increases in coal consumption for the US and Europe – their first demand rises in nearly a decade.
“However, global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met,” cautioned the IEA.
The “short-lived” refers to the forecast that coal use will flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tonnes – although the IEA acknowledges that its 2025 forecast will need to be reviewed following the release of the Chinese government’s 14th Five-Year Plan. “Renewables are on track to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity in the world by 2025. And by that time, natural gas will likely have taken over coal as the second largest source of primary energy after oil,” said Sadamori.
The IEA expects the future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. China and India currently account for 65% of global coal demand, which rises to 75% if Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia are included. By 2025, ASEAN will become the third-largest coal-consuming region, surpassing the US and the EU.
Changing trade patterns
In its Coal 2020 report, released mid-December, the IEA also notes that the patterns of the international thermal coal trade are shifting. Traditionally, trade was characterised by two geographic basins: the Pacific Basin, where Japan and Korea were the top importers; and the Atlantic Basin, where European countries imported most of the traded coal. South Africa, and to a much lesser extent Russia, linked the two basins in coal trade. “This no longer portrays international coal trade patterns, as the Atlantic market has separated from Asian market,” says the IEA. “For instance, in 2019, the volume of coal imports in India were almost double EU import quantities, a clear indicator of a shift to Asia and the waning of Europe in international coal markets.”
For the US, a brief surge in demand brought about by higher natural gas prices and an expected pickup in coal demand this year does not materially improve the medium term prospects for coal. The IEA points out that big US mining companies are increasingly shifting away from thermal coal for power generation and focusing on metallurgical coal for iron and steel production, changing the demand pattern.
Another factor driving 2021 uncertainty is lower imports of Australian coal by China. In mid-December, China appeared to formalise what had been an unofficial ban on Australian coal exports. Wood Mackenzie noted that the action had been “implemented very effectively”, with total coal export volumes down to 0.4m tonnes in November 2020, from a usual range of between 6m and 10m tonnes a month. Australia has asked Beijing to clarify the situation and has warned that China would be breaching its commitments under WTO membership and in relation to the free trade agreements signed between the two nations if it has ordered its state-owned enterprises to boycott Australian coal, as state media reported in December.
Bringing together all the variables on the international coal trade, the IEA still forecasts a recovery this year, but is less optimistic about medium-term prospects. It is particularly edgy about the evolution of Chinese import policies and developments in India’s indigenous thermal coal production, questioning how those developments will impact future coal trade.
By Carly Fields
Source: Baltic Exchange
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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