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Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
 Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle rather than dramatic
Coal carriers can look forward to a 26m-tonne increase in movements of the black rock by sea this year, although that increase springs off the lower baseline of pandemic-struck 2020.
Statistics from global energy analyst IEA put 2020 trade volumes at a 10% retraction, equivalent to around 150m tonnes - the largest drop ever - with seaborne coal trade hardest hit. In that context, the additional 26m tonnes predicted for 2021 is worthy of little celebration.
“The Covid-19 crisis has completely reshaped global coal markets. Before the pandemic, we expected a small rebound in coal demand in 2020, but we have since witnessed the largest drop in coal consumption since the Second World War,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. “The decline would have been even steeper without the strong economic rebound in China – the world’s largest coal consumer – in the second half of the year.”
All this comes on the top of a bumper year for global coal trade in 2019, when it reached its highest ever volume at 1,445m tonnes, a 0.8% increase from the previous year, with the vast majority of coal traded in 2019 - 92% and 1,331m tonnes - moved by sea. Countering this, exports in 2021 are expected to reach 1,323m tonnes this year. “This means that export volumes will remain well below the pre-Covid volumes,” said the IEA.
“Short-lived” rebound
In terms of demand, a rebound is expected this year, and while it is forecast to be “short-lived” there is “little sign that the world’s coal consumption is set to decline substantially in the coming years”, said the IEA. If the world economy recovers, global coal demand is expected to rise 2.6% in 2021. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, but there could be surprise increases in coal consumption for the US and Europe – their first demand rises in nearly a decade.
“However, global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met,” cautioned the IEA.
The “short-lived” refers to the forecast that coal use will flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tonnes – although the IEA acknowledges that its 2025 forecast will need to be reviewed following the release of the Chinese government’s 14th Five-Year Plan. “Renewables are on track to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity in the world by 2025. And by that time, natural gas will likely have taken over coal as the second largest source of primary energy after oil,” said Sadamori.
The IEA expects the future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. China and India currently account for 65% of global coal demand, which rises to 75% if Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia are included. By 2025, ASEAN will become the third-largest coal-consuming region, surpassing the US and the EU.
Changing trade patterns
In its Coal 2020 report, released mid-December, the IEA also notes that the patterns of the international thermal coal trade are shifting. Traditionally, trade was characterised by two geographic basins: the Pacific Basin, where Japan and Korea were the top importers; and the Atlantic Basin, where European countries imported most of the traded coal. South Africa, and to a much lesser extent Russia, linked the two basins in coal trade. “This no longer portrays international coal trade patterns, as the Atlantic market has separated from Asian market,” says the IEA. “For instance, in 2019, the volume of coal imports in India were almost double EU import quantities, a clear indicator of a shift to Asia and the waning of Europe in international coal markets.”
For the US, a brief surge in demand brought about by higher natural gas prices and an expected pickup in coal demand this year does not materially improve the medium term prospects for coal. The IEA points out that big US mining companies are increasingly shifting away from thermal coal for power generation and focusing on metallurgical coal for iron and steel production, changing the demand pattern.
Another factor driving 2021 uncertainty is lower imports of Australian coal by China. In mid-December, China appeared to formalise what had been an unofficial ban on Australian coal exports. Wood Mackenzie noted that the action had been “implemented very effectively”, with total coal export volumes down to 0.4m tonnes in November 2020, from a usual range of between 6m and 10m tonnes a month. Australia has asked Beijing to clarify the situation and has warned that China would be breaching its commitments under WTO membership and in relation to the free trade agreements signed between the two nations if it has ordered its state-owned enterprises to boycott Australian coal, as state media reported in December.
Bringing together all the variables on the international coal trade, the IEA still forecasts a recovery this year, but is less optimistic about medium-term prospects. It is particularly edgy about the evolution of Chinese import policies and developments in India’s indigenous thermal coal production, questioning how those developments will impact future coal trade.
By Carly Fields
Source: Baltic Exchange
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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