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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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