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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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