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Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal price has been reinvigorated, with Morgan Stanley noting a recent rally generated by an increase in spot buying from Chinese end-users.
The thermal price, having been around US$50/t since early May, has risen to US$55.50/t. Still, the broker assesses developments in China are somewhat confusing.
Customs authorities in Shanghai are contemplating a ban on coal discharging in the final months of the year while some in southern China have secured additional clearance quotas. China is aiming to limit coal imports but domestic production is also constrained because of the clampdown on illegal output.
This has generally tightened the market. Power generation from coal for key importers such as India, Japan and South Korea is returning to normal, although high inventory could limit the level of winter stockpiling in the broker’s view.
Meanwhile, Glencore is curtailing supply in Australia and in June, Morgan Stanley points out, almost half seaborne coal exporters were loss-making, although this has reduced to around 15% at the spot price. Hence, a lapse in supply discipline and a quick return of curtailed capacity could put the recent recovery at risk.
On the metallurgical (coking) coal front, Australia’s hard coking coal price has risen to US$139/t, also sustained by Chinese buying and a recovery in steel production. India’s steel production is almost back to normal, Morgan Stanley observes, although coal imports have not kept up with output.
The broker believes a floor is settling under both coal pricing systems but favours metallurgical over thermal coal as there is a more robust recovery in demand, less inventory around, and potential for seasonal supply disruptions ahead.
Short-Term
So, what about the weather? The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has assessed a La Niña event now prevails in the Pacific Ocean. This signals higher rainfall on the eastern seaboard over the next few months.
As the number of tropical cyclones is also likely to increase, this brings the focus of risk to the largely metallurgical coal basins of Queensland. Credit Suisse assesses a risk of price spikes for coal in the event of supply disruptions and insufficient inventory, given improving demand.
While Australian coal producers are better equipped to deal with severe weather these days, having invested in mitigation, the extent and location of events are difficult to predict adequately.
The Bowen Basin coalfields are the most exposed to severe rain events from tropical cyclones, Credit Suisse notes, while further west base metals operations could be hampered by disruptions to Queensland rail networks. Hence, steel mills and coal traders are likely to be watching the weather closely, to ensure they are ready in terms of sourcing required volumes of metallurgical coal.
Source: FNArena
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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