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Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal price has been reinvigorated, with Morgan Stanley noting a recent rally generated by an increase in spot buying from Chinese end-users.
The thermal price, having been around US$50/t since early May, has risen to US$55.50/t. Still, the broker assesses developments in China are somewhat confusing.
Customs authorities in Shanghai are contemplating a ban on coal discharging in the final months of the year while some in southern China have secured additional clearance quotas. China is aiming to limit coal imports but domestic production is also constrained because of the clampdown on illegal output.
This has generally tightened the market. Power generation from coal for key importers such as India, Japan and South Korea is returning to normal, although high inventory could limit the level of winter stockpiling in the broker’s view.
Meanwhile, Glencore is curtailing supply in Australia and in June, Morgan Stanley points out, almost half seaborne coal exporters were loss-making, although this has reduced to around 15% at the spot price. Hence, a lapse in supply discipline and a quick return of curtailed capacity could put the recent recovery at risk.
On the metallurgical (coking) coal front, Australia’s hard coking coal price has risen to US$139/t, also sustained by Chinese buying and a recovery in steel production. India’s steel production is almost back to normal, Morgan Stanley observes, although coal imports have not kept up with output.
The broker believes a floor is settling under both coal pricing systems but favours metallurgical over thermal coal as there is a more robust recovery in demand, less inventory around, and potential for seasonal supply disruptions ahead.
Short-Term
So, what about the weather? The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has assessed a La Niña event now prevails in the Pacific Ocean. This signals higher rainfall on the eastern seaboard over the next few months.
As the number of tropical cyclones is also likely to increase, this brings the focus of risk to the largely metallurgical coal basins of Queensland. Credit Suisse assesses a risk of price spikes for coal in the event of supply disruptions and insufficient inventory, given improving demand.
While Australian coal producers are better equipped to deal with severe weather these days, having invested in mitigation, the extent and location of events are difficult to predict adequately.
The Bowen Basin coalfields are the most exposed to severe rain events from tropical cyclones, Credit Suisse notes, while further west base metals operations could be hampered by disruptions to Queensland rail networks. Hence, steel mills and coal traders are likely to be watching the weather closely, to ensure they are ready in terms of sourcing required volumes of metallurgical coal.
Source: FNArena
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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