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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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