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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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