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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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