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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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