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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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