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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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