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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 June 21
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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