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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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