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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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