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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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