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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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