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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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