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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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