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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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