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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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