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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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