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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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