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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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