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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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