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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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