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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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