We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
|
|
|
Showing 966 to 970 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
