We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
|
|
|
Showing 966 to 970 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
