We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
|
|
|
Showing 956 to 960 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
