We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
|
|
|
Showing 941 to 945 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
