We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
|
|
|
Showing 936 to 940 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
