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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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