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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL INDIA TRADE UNIONS DEFER DAY-LONG STRIKE: PTI
The unions had decided to go on strike against the commercial mining and the proposed divestment or buyback of shares of Coal India Ltd (CIL).
...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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