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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
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Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
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Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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