We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
-
Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
-
Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
|
|
|
Showing 856 to 860 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
|
| |
| |
|
.png)
.png)
(1).png)
(1).png)
