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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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