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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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