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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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