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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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